India, Pakistan, and Nuclear Weapons
Lipitz Lecture
Location
Library and Gallery, Albin O. Kuhn : Gallery
Date & Time
May 7, 2015, 4:00 pm – 5:00 pm
Description
Devin Hagerty, Professor of Political Science and Director, Global Studies, UMBC
India, Pakistan, and Nuclear Weapons: Deterrence Stability in South Asia
Recent events and scholarly analysis suggest that South Asia may be trending toward yet another nuclear-tinged Indo-Pakistani crisis. Meaningful dialogue between Pakistan and India has stalled, the disputed territory of Kashmir has seen regular exchanges of fire across the Line of Control (LOC), and Indian strategic elites worry about the possibility of another Mumbai-style terrorist attack. This talk assesses the robustness of Indo-Pakistani deterrence stability. More specifically, it analyzes the likelihood that another mass-casualty attack on Indian soil, carried out by terrorists sponsored by elements of the Pakistani state, would escalate to conventional – and perhaps nuclear – war between Pakistan and India. This question is considered in the context of previous Indo-Pakistani crises in 1999, 2001-02, and 2008; recent quantitative and qualitative improvements in Pakistani and Indian nuclear forces; the growing superiority of India’s conventional military forces over Pakistan’s; and the more muscular foreign policy adopted by the new government of Indian prime minister Narendra Modi.