Jeryl Mumpower, Texas A&M speaker for Econ and PUBL Seminar

Jeryl Mumpower, Texas A&M University

September 27^th, 12-1PM, Public Policy 451

In public administration and policy settings, predictive or diagnostic judgments are essential.  We examine the question of whether the ability to make accurate predictions and diagnoses is the same for Blacks (and other minority racial or ethnic minority groups) as it is for Whites in three areas—child welfare services, college admissions, and criminal justice.  To do so, we use Signal Detection Theory (SDT), a technique for analyzing judgment and decision making under uncertainty.  In all three cases there are differences in the relative frequency and type of errors that are made across racial or ethnic groups. Differences in this regard need not be a function of bias, either explicit or implicit.  Poor prediction or diagnosis may arise from systematic bias that discriminates against minority group members, but in some instances our ability to make predictions or diagnoses is not as good for racial or ethnic minorities as it is for Whites, leading to more or different patterns of mistakes.  In other instances, different cut-off rules are used for majority and minority group members, with the result that certain types of errors are more likely for one group than for others.  In still other instances, differences in base rates lead to disproportionality in outcomes across groups.  SDT techniques can improve our understanding of the causes and consequences of differences in predictive or diagnostic ability across racial and ethnic groups.

Be on the lookout for these upcoming talks in the Economics and Public Policy Research Seminar:

Misallocation and Intersectoral Linkages
Sophie Osotimehin, University of Quebec, Montreal

October 11^th, 12-1PM, Public Policy 451

The Ideological Politics of Charter Schools
Richard Blissett, Seton Hall University
October 15^th, 4-5PM, Public Policy 367

Lessons from New York City’s Small Schools of Choice about High-School Features that Promote Graduation for Disadvantaged Students
Howard Bloom, MDRC

October 22^nd, 12-1PM, Public Policy 367

Exposure to International Trade and Mortality

Alexander F. McQuoid, U.S. Naval Academy

November 1^st, 12-1PM, Public Policy 451

HIV Treatment as Economic Stimulus: Community Spillover Effects of Mass ART Provision in Rural South Africa 
Zoe McLaren, UMBC School of Public Policy

November 5^th, 12-1PM, Public Policy 451

Using the National Intimate and Sexual Violence Survey to Explore Intimate Partner Violence Experienced by Lesbian, Gay and Bisexual Individuals 
Lynn Addington, American University
November 29^th, 12-1PM, Public Policy 451